son Galvani, director of Yale University’s Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, and colleagues used coronavirus transmission models to determine the extent to which silent transmission contributes to the spread of COVID-19.
They based the study on existing research, which indicates asymptomatic infections account for 17.9% to 30.8% of all infections.
Assuming 17.9% of cases are asymptomatic, the team found that presymptomatic people would account for 48% of transmission, and asymptomatic people would account for 3.4% of transmission.
If 30.8% of cases are asymptomatic, they found that presymptomatic people would be responsible for 47% of transmitted cases and asymptomatic people would account for 6.6% of transmission, respectively.
The model assumes COVID-19 may be most contagious during the presymptomatic stage, which is uncommon for a respiratory infection. The team found that even immediate isolation of all symptomatic cases would not be enough to get the spread under control.
To suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population, the study found it would be necessary to identify and isolate more than one-third of silent transmitters, in addition to all symptomatic cases.
Researchers emphasized the need for both testing and contact tracing to safely lift the current social distancing and stay-at-home restrictions.
Source: ABC newshttps://www.koco.com/article/silent-spreaders-may-be-responsible-for-half-of-covid-19-cases/33240357